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Wednesday, 2 March 2016

Greece must exit the Eurozone


Objective:  Debate the pros and cons of a Greek exit from the Eurozone

Debate Outline

I.                    Pro – Greece must exit the Eurozone:  Greece is insolvent and stuck in an ever deepening depression.  A default and exit will be costly and will come with economic pain, but the alternative is a decade or more of deflation and depression for Greece that could spill over to other Eurozone countries.  The exit must be orderly and negotiated to avoid any spillover or domino effect amongst

II.                Arguments for:
a.       Greece will regain its sovereignty
1.      The Troika can no longer dictate Greek economic policy
2.      Greece regains control of their monetary policy
3.      Debt relief – Default to creditors will mean that Greece will face a smaller debt burden almost immediately
4.      Grexit will be a round of short-term pain for long-term gain

b.      A return to the Drachma will improve the Greek economy  
1.      Devaluation – weaker currency will spur exports and tourism
2.      Public Finances –  With a restructure of debt surpluses in excess of current accounts will allow investment in growth
3.      Policy Flexibility- Athens would no longer be subject to austerity measures and can work to address unemployment rates
4.      Greece will be able to take their own financial and political decisions, because they will not be attached to the Eurozone regulations.

c.       An orderly exit reduces the risk of spillover effects of other Eurozone countries

III.             Opposing view summary:
1.      If Greece exits the Euro, it would bring the country immediately to its seventh recession.
2.      It would create enormous uncertainty inside the Euro and the other countries.
3.      Risk of hyperinflation in Greece.
4.      It would be a very expensive operation for the entire country.


IV.              Summary: The treaties that established the European Monterey Union provided no framework for a departure from the union.  Presumably in the hopes that by not having a plan for an exit it would preclude any member country from ever withdrawing from the union  Unfortunately 

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